Math 2.0

statement proposition

Sum of independent Poisson random variables

Statement

Let X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_n be independent random variables with Xi∼Poisson⁡(λi)X_i \sim \operatorname{Poisson}(\lambda_i) and λi>0\lambda_i > 0. Then X1+⋯+Xn∼Poisson⁡(λ1+⋯+λn).X_1 + \dots + X_n \sim \operatorname{Poisson}(\lambda_1 + \dots + \lambda_n).

Remarks

Proof with generating functions: GXi(z)=eλi(z−1)G_{X_i}(z) = e^{\lambda_i (z - 1)}, so the sum has G(z)=e(λ1+⋯+λn)(z−1)G(z) = e^{(\lambda_1 + \dots + \lambda_n)(z - 1)}. This is the generating function of Poisson⁡(λ1+⋯+λn)\operatorname{Poisson}(\lambda_1 + \dots + \lambda_n). A direct proof for n=2n = 2 uses the binomial theorem: ∑k=0me−λ1λ1kk!e−λ2λ2m−k(m−k)!=e−(λ1+λ2)(λ1+λ2)mm!\sum_{k=0}^{m} e^{-\lambda_1} \frac{\lambda_1^k}{k!} e^{-\lambda_2} \frac{\lambda_2^{m-k}}{(m-k)!} = e^{-(\lambda_1 + \lambda_2)} \frac{(\lambda_1 + \lambda_2)^m}{m!}. Conversely, given X1+X2=mX_1 + X_2 = m, the conditional law of X1X_1 is Bin⁡(m,λ1/(λ1+λ2))\operatorname{Bin}(m, \lambda_1 / (\lambda_1 + \lambda_2)).

Explanations

L1 human

If calls come to two help desks as independent Poisson counts, the total number of calls is again a Poisson count. Its mean is the sum of the two means.

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Sources

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution, Sums of Poisson-distributed random variables