Math 2.0

statement proposition

Probability of the complement

Statement

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, P) be a probability space and let A∈FA \in \mathcal{F} be an event. Let Ac=Ω∖AA^c = \Omega \setminus A be the complement of AA. Then P(Ac)=1−P(A).P(A^c) = 1 - P(A).

Remarks

The proof: AA and AcA^c are disjoint and A∪Ac=ΩA \cup A^c = \Omega, so P(A)+P(Ac)=P(Ω)=1P(A) + P(A^c) = P(\Omega) = 1 by additivity. With A=ΩA = \Omega, the rule gives P(∅)=0P(\varnothing) = 0. The rule is useful when AcA^c is simpler than AA. For example, the probability of at least one six in four rolls of a fair die is 1−(5/6)4≈0.5181 - (5/6)^4 \approx 0.518.

Explanations

L1 human

Either AA happens or it does not, and the two chances add up to 11. If the chance of rain is 0.30.3, then the chance of no rain is 0.70.7.

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Sources

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complementary_event, Complement rule