Math 2.0

counterexample

Pairwise independent events that are not mutually independent

Counterexample

Toss a fair coin two times, so Ω={HH,HT,TH,TT}\Omega = \{HH, HT, TH, TT\} with probability 1/41/4 for each outcome. Let AA be "the first toss is heads", BB be "the second toss is heads", and CC be "the two tosses are equal". Then A={HH,HT}A = \{HH, HT\}, B={HH,TH}B = \{HH, TH\} and C={HH,TT}C = \{HH, TT\}, so P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=1/2P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = 1/2. Each intersection of two of them is {HH}\{HH\}, with probability 1/4=12⋅121/4 = \frac12 \cdot \frac12. So AA, BB and CC are pairwise independent. But P(A∩B∩C)=P({HH})=1/4P(A \cap B \cap C) = P(\{HH\}) = 1/4, and P(A) P(B) P(C)=1/8P(A) \, P(B) \, P(C) = 1/8. So AA, BB and CC are not mutually independent.

Remarks

Here any two of the events determine the third: if AA and BB both occur, then CC occurs. The same idea with nn fair bits and their sums modulo 22 gives large pairwise independent families. Such families are useful in computer science.

Explanations

L1 human

If you know the first toss, you know nothing about CC, and the same for the second toss. But if you know both tosses, you know CC exactly. So the three events are not independent as a group.

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Sources

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pairwise_independence, Example